نشریه مجلس و اقتصاد
سال دوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 3، بهار 1403)

According to the influence of most items and services on the exchange rate and the high share of intermediate inputs in the total import, it is expected that changes in the exchange rate will have a great impact on domestic prices. In addition, deviations from the inflation target cause companies to quickly reflect changes in exchange rates to prices. In this regard, the uncertainty caused by various impulses from the channel influencing the decisions of consumers and investors can lead to price increase. Therefore, considering the effect of uncertainty on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of world uncertainty on the exchange rate Pass-Through in Iran using the Markov regime change model and during the period of spring 2012 to summer 2023. For this purpose, according to theoretical foundations and empirical studies, the variables of consumer price index, exchange rate, global uncertainty index, economic growth and liquidity have been used to estimate the model. Considering the positive relationship of the exchange rate in the free market, the policy maker must control the extreme fluctuations of the exchange rate, which include the policies proposed in this regard, the policy of strengthening and supporting domestic production and reducing dependence on the import of products, developing and supporting non-oil exports as a source of income for the country and directing liquidity towards productive activities. The results also show that the world uncertainty index variable has a positive non-linear relationship with the consumer price index in both regimes. Therefore, for price stability, uncertainty should be considered as one of the factors affecting domestic prices, and policy makers should adopt policies to reduce their effects by anticipating uncertainties.

The misery index is known as one of the measures of economic well-being, and misery increasing index in a country means the deterioration of the economic and social welfare of the people of that country. Therefore, the worsening of the misery index, in adding to the economic effects, can bring many cultural and social consequences, so the identification and evaluation of macroeconomic factors affecting this index should be considered by planners and policy makers. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the factors affecting the misery index during the period of spring 2011 to summer 2023. In the present study, the framework of Shrestha and Bhatta (2018) and Fomby (1998), which helps a lot in choosing appropriate methods, has been used to analyze time series data. The results show that some variables are stationary and others are Cointegration of the first order, and based on the framework of Shrestha and Bhatta (2018), the Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Model should be estimated. The model estimation results show the positive effect of the uncertainty index on the misery index in the long term. Also, the effect of the exchange rate variables in the free market and the participation rate on the poverty index is positive, and the labor productivity variable has a negative effect on the poverty index. The results of this study can be used in such a way that in addition to the necessity of controlling exchange rate fluctuations, attention to the correct announcement of applied policies and the timely release of economic information that leads to the reduction of economic policy uncertainty can help to reduce the misery index.

The unprecedented increase of the debts level in all countries highlighted the role of governance on public debt. Theoretical and empirical literature has shown that countries with weak governance structures face the problem of separating monetary policy from debt management, so the necessity of good governance and strong institutional capacity can be effective in reducing the debt burden. This study examines the effect of governance on government debts in Iran's economy during the period of 1996-2022 using smooth transition regression model. The results showed that increasing the governance index in both linear and non-linear regimes had a positive and significant effect on government debts, with the difference that these effects were intensified in the second regime. The strong institutions can effectively help curb debt in countries due to the existence of strong financial frameworks and laws, but in countries with weaker institutions, due to the lack of regulatory frameworks, the lack of political stability and government effectiveness, the existence of corruption, etc., can lead to debt instability in the country. An important issue that has emerged in Iran in recent years and its consequences can be seen in all economic, social and political aspects of the country. This study showed that some of the negative consequences of economic variables are due to the weakness of government policies and government institutions to strengthen governance, which has caused a better environment to promote economic variables and bring declining economic growth and increasing debts to Iran.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate and compare the effect of ecological and carbon footprints on multidimensional poverty in Iran's economy. In this study, three models have been specified and estimated using the available data of 2018-2018 and the ARDL approach. In all three models, the dependent variable of multidimensional poverty is defined as a combination index of life expectancy index and human development index, so that in the first model, the effect of the ecological footprint, in the second model, the effect of the carbon footprint, in the third model, the effect of both and other factors affecting multidimensional poverty have been included. According to the estimation results of the first model and the second model in the short and long term, ecological and carbon footprints have a negative and significant effect on poverty. The results of the estimation of the third model in the short term show that the ecological footprint has a positive effect and the carbon footprint has a negative and significant effect on poverty. On the other hand, the long-term estimation results of the third model show that the ecological footprint has a positive and significant effect on poverty, while the carbon footprint has a negative effect on the multidimensional poverty index. Other findings indicate that in the first and second models, in the short and long term, the index of fiscal policy and inflation has a positive effect and the index of monetary policy has a negative and significant effect on poverty. The results of the estimation of the third model in the short term show that the fiscal policy index has a negative effect and its lag has a positive and significant effect on poverty. The effect of this variable in the long term is negative and of course not significant. Also, in the short and long term, monetary policy has a negative effect and inflation in the long term has a positive and significant effect on multidimensional poverty in Iran's economy.

Nowadays, good governance is recognized as a fundamental concept that holds significant importance at every level of organizations and societies. This type of governance, which focuses on transparency, justice, participation, and efficiency, profoundly impacts performance and development. Through transparent and accountable processes, good governance strengthens public trust and contributes to sustainable development. On the other hand, unemployment, as an economic and social phenomenon, is of notable importance. Therefore, the primary aim of this research is to examine the impact of good governance on the unemployment rate in Iran during the period from 1990 to 2021 using the quantile regression method. To achieve the research objective, variables such as foreign direct investment, per capita GDP, the real effective exchange rate, and the inflation rate have been used as control variables. The results of this study indicate that the good governance index has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate across all unemployment rate deciles. Per capita GDP and foreign direct investment also have a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate across all deciles. Meanwhile, the inflation rate and the real effective exchange rate have a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate from the first to the fifth decile, and a positive and significant effect from the sixth to the ninth decile.

The impact of high technology exports on economic growth has been a topic of considerable research interest. Emprical studies examining the effect of this variable on growth in different countries have yielded varying results. These inconsistencies can be attributed to the changing effects of high technology exports on production growth within different economic regimes, as well as the existence of a non-linear relationship between these two variables. This paper investigates the relationship between high and medium technology exports and per capita production growth in 18 oil exporting countries from 1990 to 2021, utilizing the PSTAR model. The findings reveal a non-linear effect of high and medium technology exports on production growth, with per capita production growth serving as the transition variable. The estimated model demonstrates the positive impact of high and medium technology goods exports on per capita production growth during periods of high economic growth, while revealing a negative impact during periods of low economic growth. Additionally, the results indicate that production growth first lag and the fixed investment ratio have a positive influence on per capita production growth.

Innovation in a region or country is influenced by many variables. One of these variables is the uncertainty in the economic and political environment in that region and country. Based on this, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of global uncertainty (including economic and political uncertainty) on the level of innovation in selected OPEC member countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, and Ecuador in the period of 2011- 2022. To estimate the relationship between the variables, the econometric model of the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) has been used to examine the spatial and indirect effects in addition to the direct effects. The results of the model estimation showed that the global uncertainty variable had negative and significant direct and domestic effects on the level of innovation in these countries. Also, the spatial and indirect effects of this variable have been negative and significant on the innovation rate of countries. Two variables, the amount of facilities granted by banks to the private sector and the corruption control index had positive and significant direct effects. The indirect and spatial effects of these two variables are negative and significant.

This study with the approach of combining macroeconomic growth with transportation supply and demand, investigates the role of transportation types on Iran's economic growth between 1380-1400, using the simultaneous equation system (3SLS) method. The results of the research showed that all three types of transportation (land, air and sea) have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, so that with a one percent increase in the value of the infrastructure of the transportation sector, economic growth increases by 2.10 percent. Ground transportation has the greatest effect on the growth rate with a coefficient of 0.783, because ground transportation is the main method of transporting goods and services within a country. Maritime transportation with a coefficient of 0.571 is an important factor in economic growth, because it plays an important role in international trade, and the volume of exports and imports by ports and ships can significantly affect the rate of economic growth. Air transportation has a relatively lesser effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.037, but it is an important factor in economic growth because it facilitates the movement of people and goods over long distances and leads to increased productivity and economic growth. Also, the price of transportation services has a positive relationship with the supply of transportation services, the population and the amount of income have a positive and significant relationship with the demand for transportation services. The relationship between the price of fuel and the government budget deficit with the supply of transportation services is negative, and the relationship between the amount of cargo transported and passengers moved and the demand for transportation services is positive and significant. The main recommendation of the study is the expansion of investment in road and rail corridors in the south-north and west-east (Silk Road).